Watch 4k movies online.

A Red Team that is free to find a correct result will only find one: it’s worse than they thought. The IPCC is hopelessly conservative, which is why Luckwarmers and. In a city of humanoid animals, a hustling theater impresario's attempt to save his theater with a singing competition becomes grander than he anticipates even. Welcome to Slots.me – Dedicated to Online Slots! We love to play vegas slots games. We love online slot machines so much, that we just needed to make a website.

Ships a large variety of unarranged bouquets and floral gifts throughout the United States. Includes product care information, reminder service and ordering by. Before taking on the Guardians of the Galaxy, director James Gunn reveals that he'd always hoped to bring a Hulk/Red Hulk movie to life.

• Are You Looking For 2K Movies Online? You Can Watch Movies Online For Free In 2K HD Quality. You Can Watch All The New Or Latest and Classic Movies In 2K HD Quality.
• Create free online surveys in minutes with SurveyMonkey. Get the feedback you need so you can make smarter decisions.

What is red teaming? Excerpts: On the contrary, both climate scientists and advocates should see opportunity in a red team exercise. A properly- done red team exercise could both elevate the status of climate science in the Trump administration and among Republicans, and reset how we approach climate science as a nation. Many climate skeptics suspect that the climate science community is caught up in political conformity that leans toward alarmism, and that alternative ideas about the causes and risks of climate change cannot break through peer review. Red teaming is designed to address such a situation. As Micah Zenko writes in his authoritative book Red Team: in institutions that are supposed to police themselves through internal processes, like the scientific community with peer- review, “even longtime analysts are susceptible to adopting the assumptions and biases of the institutions and subjects they are supposed to be objectively studying.” Whether climate science is caught in such a morass or not, many people in power think that it is.

We have to find a way to unstick that belief if the climate debate is to move forward. A red team exercise is a fine way to do it. The strongest red team exercises have buy- in from all parties and give the red team resources to perform original analysis along a set of critical questions.

They also ensure that the team has the right mixture of expertise so that its results will be considered credible to the institution they are looking to influence (in this case, climate science). Lastly, they give the red team sufficient independence to come to original and creative conclusions. What is red teaming? There are many pitfalls in  establishing and conducting a successful and useful red team exercise.

Red Team Journal was founded in 1. The site has influenced a generation of red teamers to think systematically and creatively about their assumptions, challenges, adversaries, and competitors. Excerpts from the Red Team Journal About page: Defined loosely, red teaming is the practice of viewing a problem from an adversary or competitor’s perspective.

The goal of most red teams is to enhance decision making, either by specifying the adversary’s preferences and strategies or by simply acting as a devil’s advocate. Alternative analysis is the superclass of techniques of which red teaming may be considered a member. As with red teaming, these techniques are designed to help debias thinking, enhance decision making, and avoid surprise. According to Fishbein and Treverton, “alternative analysis seeks to help analysts and policy- makers stretch their thinking through structured techniques that challenge underlying assumptions and broaden the range of possible outcomes considered.” They further clarify the term by specifying that “Alternative analysis includes techniques to challenge analytic assumptions (e. An overconfident or culturally biased analyst or team will not benefit as much from these approaches as might an analyst or team that employs “actively open- minded thinking.”Excerpts from Red teaming: a balanced view: Clearly, not every red team is created equal. Superior red teams, for example, tend to.

View the problem of interest from a systems perspective; Shed the cultural biases of the decision maker and, as appropriate, adopt the cultural perspective of the adversary or competitor; Employ a multidisciplinary range of skills, talents, and methods; Understand how things work in the real world; Avoid absolute and objective explanations of behaviors, preferences, and events; Question everything (to include both their clients and themselves); and. Break the “rules.”One can argue that the best red teamers are born, not trained. It seems that some people have an instinctive ability to red team, while others—despite extensive training—can never escape the secure but confining pen of convention. In fact, this is perhaps the key characteristic of the inferior red team: an inability or unwillingness to color outside the lines.

Inferior red teams also tend to. Accept without question the client’s description of the problem; Embrace the biases inherent in their own values and culture; Adopt the first or most easily discerned answer; Defer to reputation and status; and. Know it all. The members of an inferior red team might include deferential technocrats and self- important experts. Resistance. Not every decision maker wants a red team (or at least a candid red team). A red team can undermine a decision maker’s preferred strategies or call into question his or her choices, policies, and intentions.

It takes a decision maker of solid integrity to sponsor, empower, and manage a superior red team. That said, a thoughtful decision maker also balances the costs and benefits of red teaming with the costs and benefits of advocacy, compromise, and consensus building. It is also important to note that not all resistance is harmful; it can represent valid interests, concerns, and risks of which the red team is simply unaware. To Red Team or Not to Red Team.

Nearly everyone can benefit from some form or degree of red teaming. Whether the “red team” is a highly structured, formal unit or a self- appointed devil’s advocate, almost every idea, concept, design, or plan benefits from healthy opposition and testing. Too much red teaming, however, can be as harmful as too little. No one wants a relentless contrarian gumming up every phase of a project. It won’t take long, in fact, for everyone to dismiss the contrarian as an annoyance.

Decision makers must be careful to apply red teaming judiciously. Among other factors, timing is especially important. Establishing a red team too early can lead to aimless dithering; establishing it too late can trigger fierce (and justifiable) resistance. Even so, the adage “better late than never” sometimes applies. Not every problem has a distinct boundary delineated by a single, unbiased point of view.

Often the overriding characteristic of a complex problem is the unclear, contradictory, and confusing tangle of relationships and concerns among the various stakeholders. The broader the problem, the greater the challenge. Indeed, this may explain why national- level initiatives rarely experience honest red teaming. Red teams must avoid serving as a shill for a single stakeholder when red teaming complex problems of this sort. In short, the decision when and how to red team can be a surprisingly complex one.

Dropping a red team into a highly charged political situation can undermine trust and erode hard- won consensus. Similarly, red teaming a decision during implementation can raise more questions than it answers, sabotage morale, and cause a decision maker to second- guess sound choices unnecessarily. On the other hand, aiming a seasoned red team at a problem or system at the right time with the proper mandate can steer a decision maker away from an otherwise pending catastrophe. From Red teaming laws: Red teaming is governed by informal and wholly unscientific laws based largely on human nature. This law trumps all other laws. Red Teaming Law #2: Skeptics make the best red teamers, especially when they’re skeptical of red teaming.

Red Teaming Law #6: You don’t want a red team you can leash. Red Teaming Law #7: If you’re apprehensive about red teaming, it probably means you need it.

Red Teaming Law #9: Red teaming is not forecasting; red teaming is the art of challenging assumptions and exploring the possible. Red Teaming Law #1. The inferior red teamer defers to reputation and status.

The superior red teamer pokes arrogance in the eye. Red Teaming Law #1. What your customers won’t let you challenge sometimes points directly at their most critical vulnerability. Red Teaming Law #1. The superior red teamer learns how things work in the real world, not just how they work on a diagram or presentation slide. Red Teaming Law #2. If you defeat the red team, you still have to defeat the enemy.

Red Teaming Law #2. The Teacher (2017) Movie Trailers.