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That leaves Diane Lane, from "Unfaithful," and Julianne Moore, from "Far from Heaven." I would be pleased to see either woman win--slightly more pleased for Moore. At first I was. The girl in Andre Techine's "Girl on the Train" is Jeanne, who has never fully engaged in the society she occupies. She roller blades through French suburbs with her.

Roger Ebert's 2. 00. Oscar Predictions . I know that . But, hey, I also know the Directors Guild honored Rob Marshall for . That would be . It votes for the best headline. This year, it sees big type that shouts . Of the others, Nicolas Cage is my favorite, for his wiggy, off- the- wall dual role in . Adrien Brody won admiration for his work in .

Now, on to the one trait this is. Geostorm (2017) Review more.

But he's too much an unknown to take home the prize. As for Michael Caine, beloved and respected, the nomination is his award. That leaves Daniel Day- Lewis, as Bill the Butcher in Scorsese's . There is also the fact that it's quite a performance, from the knife tapping on the glass eye to that weird accent, which Day- Lewis allegedly learned from an ancient Edison wax cylinder recording of Walt Whitman reading a poem. Daniel Day- Lewis it is.

Her performance in . Of course, her character, Roxy Hart, isn't supposed to be a talented performer- -that's the whole point- -but in the golden age of the Hollywood musical, even the untalented characters were brilliant at being untalented (see Jean Hagen as the hapless silent star in . Salma Hayek has the role of a lifetime in .

Nicole Kidman embodies Virginia Woolf in . Also, those viewers who do not already know the story of Virginia Woolf's death (and, believe me, they are legion) are less moved by her suicide than perhaps they should be.

Yet she is considered the front- runner, not least because Hollywood admires the class with which she handled her divorce from Tom Cruise, and the flair with which her career has gone from one good choice to another. Advertisement That leaves Diane Lane, from . I have a feeling Moore's vote will split between her two nominations and that Lane's picture has not been widely enough seen. So the winner will be Nicole Kidman. SUPPORTING ACTOR: Will Paul Newman win because the academy loves him? Will Christopher Walken win because moviegoers smile with anticipation every time he appears in a movie? Probably not, in both cases.

Newman was powerful and sad in . Walken, as the sometimes grudgingly proud father of a teenage con- man (Leonardo Di Caprio) was good, weird and offbeat, but he's so dependably watchable that Hollywood tends to take him for granted. That leaves Ed Harris, as the suicidal poet in .

Reilly, as Renee Zellweger's invisible husband in . Voters will have enjoyed the brilliance and originality of . He plays a man who looks like a swamp rat, urgently requires dental repairs, and yet is able to charm a New Yorker writer (Meryl Streep) with the sheer energy of his enthusiasm. His feelings about orchids are infectious to such a degree that the feelings, not the orchids, become the focus of the story- within- the story. Advertisement. SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Here a plausible case can be made for all five nominees. The weakest, strangely, may be Meryl Streep, because she has been nominated so often and is a known quantity. There are two . That was way ahead of Bruce Willis' $1.

Latifah, not co- star Steve Martin (it was his biggest opening ever, a fact that is trying to tell you something). DIRECTOR: Here the contest is between Rob Marshall of . Stephen Daldry (. The winner of the Directors Guild Award goes on to win the Oscar well over 9.

Oscar parties and office pools Rob Marshall is the safe bet. Advertisement But I can't believe it. I can't believe that Martin Scorsese, at 6. American directors (with Robert Altman), will be passed over again by Twizzler- brained Oscar voters who get timid when confronted by genius.

In 1. 98. 1, he was nominated for . In 1. 98. 9, he was nominated for . In 1. 99. 1, he was nominated for . Which one of those two would you want to see again tonight? Scorsese is not only a great director but an invaluable citizen of the film community- -a crusader for film preservation, a historian whose documentaries about Hollywood and Italian classics are themselves classics.

And damn it all, he made the best of the five films. But I'm not predicting that Martin Scorsese will win just because he deserves to. I'm predicting he'll win because Harvey Weinstein, who produced both . It's the only category in which Harvey is making personal phone calls.

He is a very persuasive man. PICTURE . ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: In this category the academy reached out with nominations to three (two art films, one pop) movies that generated enormous enthusiasm last year. Nia Vardalos, whose .

But the contest is probably between . When all is said and done, . It attempts no less than to make a 1.

It deserves to win, and it will. Advertisement. ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Here the obvious front runner is .

Twin brothers Charlie and Donald Kaufman have been nominated, despite the fact that Donald does not exist, for a screenplay in which both are played by Nicolas Cage; the writing is a high- wire act in which the desperate Charlie tries to adapt an intractable book that forces him into bizarre strategies of writing, pitching, lying, compensating, obsessing and competing with his brother. Of the other nominees, . The strength of . Prediction: . Charlie Kaufman will not appear alone onstage, but will be joined by his imaginary twin Donald, played in disguise by either Nicolas Cage or director Spike Jonze. Of the others, it is unlikely the academy will go for . Aki Kaurismaki's . That'll be the winner.

ANIMATED FILM: The race here seems to be between . Disney is distributing the Miyazaki, but is likely to put its clout behind the film from its own shop.

So, OK, the Columbine killers didn't go bowling earlier that morning, as a news report falsely claimed. So, OK, that bank didn't hand Moore the rifle as a premium right there in the bank, but made him go to a gun shop to pick it up. I think where Moore is concerned, audiences make their allowances and go for the big picture. The fact that . Documen- taries do have screenplays, but they're not usually regarded that way. Possible dark horse: . Advertisement CINEMATOGRAPHY: Everyone seems convinced that beloved genius Conrad Hall, who died earlier this year, will win for his work in .

But nothing would make me happier than to see Ed Lachman win for the inspired reinvention of the 1. Universal wide- screen melodrama style in . Film editing: . Documentary short subject: . Best song: Probably Kander & Ebb's ? Do they make tuxedos with hoods?